State’s Climate Change ‘Action Plan’: Business-As-Usual For Energy Sector
With its extensive developed coastal areas, unique and threatened terrestrial ecosystems, and vast coral reefs, Hawai`i is surely as vulnerable as anywhere else on Earth to the effects of global warming and consequent ocean-level rise.
Yet the patterns of energy use by Hawai`i residents and businesses, as described in a report published recently by the Department of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism and the Department of Health, reflect little awareness of the need or responsibility of residents and local businesses to take meaningful measures to mitigate this impact.
The document, “Hawai`i Climate Change Action Plan,” was published last November. It contains a sector-by-sector breakdown of greenhouse-gas emissions in Hawai`i, with special attention to how the state’s projected emissions measure up against the emissions standards set in the 1977 Kyoto protocol, the international agreement intended to head off the most extreme effects of global warming through limits on so-called greenhouse gases.
Instead of energy use — the major source of greenhouse gas emissions — declining in Hawai`i, it is rising. And, according to the report, ways of achieving meaningful reductions, without wreaking economic havoc, are practically non-existent.
Under the Kyoto protocol, the United States should, by the year 2012, reduce and hold its greenhouse-gas emissions to a level 7 percent below the volume of emissions generated in 1990. If an aggressive program were put into effect, using known technology, the 2020 forecast for Hawai`i emissions still comes out to 12 percent more than the Kyoto goal. Even a pie-in-the-sky scenario, assuming certain unlikely technical improvements in the transportation sector (more efficient aircraft and automobiles) and imposition of steep carbon taxes, has the state emitting 7 percent more greenhouse gases than in 1990.
Omitted Emissions
The scenarios in the report do not reflect the full range of greenhouse gas emissions in the state. They do not include, for example, the contributions of the military here in Hawai`i, or fuel burned by jets traveling to foreign destinations or by ships carrying goods or people to and from Hawai`i. All totaled, these sources accounted for 27 percent (about 7.4 tons) of the 26 million tons of global warming emissions produced by the state in 1990.
One might reasonably argue that these sectors should be included, since, after all, Hawai`i is the principal economic beneficiary of such activities. They are excluded from the study on the grounds that data are not readily available and, in any case, at least with respect to the military, emissions-producing activities are well beyond the control or influence of state policy.
What is included? Mainly, fuels used in transportation or to produce electricity: these constitute the greatest source of greenhouse gases produced by Hawai`i. In 1990, each of these two sectors contributed about 7.7 million tons of carbon dioxide to the environment. They also contribute the greatest proportion of other greenhouse gases, including methane and oxides of nitrogen.
(For most purposes, greenhouse gases are measured in terms of carbon dioxide or carbon-dioxide equivalents. Over a period of 100 years, for example, a ton of methane will have 22 times the radiative force — i.e., the global warming potential — as that of a ton of carbon dioxide. Thus, the report explains, “to calculate GWP in tons CO2 equivalent, emissions in CH4 [methane] in tons were multipled by 22, and N2O emissions in tons were multiplied by 270.”)
In 1990, total greenhouse emissions in Hawai`i — excluding the military and international travel — were equivalent to 18.8 million tons of carbon dioxide. By 1998, they had increased to more than 20 million tons.
If the state does nothing more than what it is now doing, by the year 2020, the annual volume of greenhouse gas emissions will reach 25 million tons. Under the second scenario outlined in the report, the state implements a climate-change action plan (CCAP), using known technologies and strategies; emissions in the year 2020 would still be more than 20,000 tons. Under the third scenario, which assumes technological fixes can further reduce emissions, the volume in 2020 will be just at 20 million tons.
Moving Backward
According to the report’s authors, opportunities in Hawai`i for further reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are limited because the state, they say, is already so efficient in its use of energy. “As the energy sector accounts for about 90 percent of [the state’s] emissions, the high level of efficiency reduces emissions-reduction options.”
Actually, the state is not really energy efficient — with efficiency defined as deriving the most energy possible from each barrel of fuel consumed — so much as it is relatively low in energy use, when per-capita consumption levels are compared with those in other states. This results not from any great virtue on the part of residents or industry here, but rather from the fact that, with the state’s mild climate, there is no great need for central heating and its attendant energy costs.
Generation Gaps
In those areas where Hawai`i might be expected to lead — solar energy or wind energy — it is lagging. “These should be more fully developed,” the report notes, although just how this is to occur remains unspecified. The report mentions an earlier study, the Hawai`i Energy Strategy, that found that if the state’s renewable energy potential (involving biomass, solar, and wind generating stations, among other things) were developed, the result would be some 439 megawatts of generating capacity. (The study counts municipal solid waste as a “renewable” resource and includes in its mix a proposal for a 25-megawatt municipal solid waste incinerator on Kaua`i.)
In 1998, the generating capability of wind energy expanded by 2,100 megawatts, pushing the global generating capacity of wind-powered turbines to 9,600 MW, according to Christopher Flavin of the Worldwatch Institute. “Wind power is now economically competitive with fossil fuel generated electricity,” write Flavin and Seth Dunn in Worldwatch’s “State of the World” report for 1999, “and the market, valued at roughly $2 billion in 1998, is growing more than 25 percent annually.”
Compare that to Hawai`i. In 1987, wind produced nearly 80 million kilowatt hours; by 1997, that figure dropped to 17 million, according to the DBEDT. The Climate Change Action Plan notes that “as of late 1998, developers have proposed new wind projects for O`ahu, Maui, and Hawai`i, and a large photovoltaic project for Hawai`i. It is not clear whether or not they will be built.”
In Denial
Another disappointment in the drive for renewable energy was the integrated resource planning effort that began in 1992 under the auspices of the state Public Utilities Commission. “One of the hopes of the state and some other IRP docket intervenors was that IRP would lead to a greater role for renewable energy in Hawai`i,” the report states. “While the utilities examined supply options that included renewable energy in their initial IRPs, renewable supply options were not selected due to utility evaluations of cost, operational factors (the intermittent nature of some renewable technologies, penetration limits, off-peak limits, etc.), reliability, technical, and permitting issues.”
The IRP framework process required the utilities, in their planning processes, to consider “external costs” — costs (including long-term environmental costs) incurred in the generation of power, but which are not paid for or recovered in the rate structure. Despite this, the report notes, “the utilities ultimately did not factor external costs and benefits into their resource selection and deferred such treatment until completion of separate studies of externalities.”
In June 1997, those “separate studies” were completed by consultants to HECO and were submitted, in the form of the Hawai`i Externalities Workbook, to the PUC. As the Hawai`i Climate Change Action Plan notes, “The Workbook addressed a wide range of external costs and benefits of electricity generation, but expressed uncertainty about the effects of climate change and did not attempt to quantify external costs of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the authors stated, that ‘because of the global nature of the issue, changes in emissions from a small entity (such as a state) will have virtulaly no impact on global climate, and only a tiny fraction of whatever change in damages occurs will be borne by the residents of that entity. As a result, it makes little sense for states to develop their own policies.”
“In oral and written comments,” the Climate Change plan goes on to say, “DBEDT disagreed with this argument. As discussed earlier in this report, Hawai`i residents may be seriously affected by climate change and certainly not just in proportion to local emissions… In developing subsequent IRPs, HECO and HELCO determined the expected CO2 emissions of each plan option and considered these values, along with many other criteria in making their plan selections. There is no evidence, however, that CO2 emissions were a major factor in final plan selection and plans with the least CO2 emissions were not selected over less costly plans with greater CO2 emissions.”
Under a more recent PUC docket that could open the electrical utilities to competition, renewable resources are supposed to be receiving increased scrutiny. Whether that will result in a serious move in the direction of renewable resources remains to be seen. If past behavior of utilities is any indicator, this is unlikely. In fact, the report says, “should electricity competition result in lower electricity prices as envisioned, such lower prices may have the unintended consequences of encouraging less efficient electricity use.”
Limited Options
Carbon dioxide emitted in the process of generating electricity in Hawai`i now stands at just under 9 million tons a year. Under the Kyoto protocol, that figure should be just under 7 million tons. But under projections described in the Climate Change report, by the year 2020, emissions from this sector will rise to more than 10 million tons a year.
Practically all the conservation measures identified in the integrated resource planning docket would help reduce CO2 emissions at the same time they would lessen overall demand for electric generating capacity. Over and above such measures are several approaches to mitigating carbon emissions from power plants, including techniques of sequestering atmospheric CO2.
While some approaches to sequestration are still highly experimental, it has long been known that forests are efficient carbon sinks. And this is already being used to offset emissions in Hawai`i. As noted in the Climate Change report, AES Hawai`i, which operates a coal-fired generating plant at Campbell Industrial Park, has established a 223-square-mile forest reserve in Paraguay. AES estimates this reserve absorbs atmospheric CO2 at the rate of some 3.1 million tons a year, or roughly 108 million tons of CO2 over the operating life of the plant.
Driving to Destruction
Energy used by the transportation sector accounts for 42 percent of Hawai`i’s CO2-equivalent emissions, just nosing out electricity generation, which emits 41 percent of CO2 equivalent emissions.
Ground and domestic air transportation (inter-island flights and most flights from and to the U.S. mainland) account for roughly equivalent contributions of CO2 emissions — 3.73 million tons and 3.86 million tons, respectively. (Emissions from marine transportation are far less: 154,517 tons, with negligible contributions of other greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon monoxide.)
Using a computer model, DBEDT forecasts that by the year 2020, annual carbon dioxide emissions from the transportation sector will rise to 9.8 million tons, an increase of 27 percent over 1990 levels.
The report explains how this figure was calculated: “While ground transportation emissions and air transportation emissions started out about equal, ground transportation emissions were forecast to grow more rapidly based upon the current trend of declining ground transportation vehicle efficiency.” Air transportation, on the other hand, was projected to experience modest improvements in efficiency, at a rate of 0.7 percent per year.
Gas Guzzlers
Ground transportation emissions come mostly from private cars, trucks, and vans. In recent years, gas-guzzling sport-utility vehicles make up a growing proportion of vehicles here and elsewhere in the United States. As a result, even though vehicle-miles traveled annually in Hawai`i have dropped, along with the number of registered vehicles, the volume of fuel used has increased. The estimated average vehicle efficiency for Hawai`i dropped 5 percent between 1990 and 1995 (diving from 20.34 miles per gallon to 18.81).
The report lists several possible ways to cut emissions from the transportation sector. One calls for increasing “the visibility of driving costs” by “internalizing” some associated costs (for example, highway law enforcement, liability insurance) through pay-at-the-pump systems. Improvements to the public transportation system on O`ahu are also recommended, as are expanded bikeway systems for all four counties.
The report acknowledges a link between land-use planning and transportation demand and recommends mixed-use developments that combine residential and commercial uses in the same urban areas. “By reducing congestion and the need for transportation,” the report notes, “less vehicle fuel will be used and less greenhouse gas emissions will occur.”
Measures to reduce congestion by improving the efficiency of the transportation system are described in the report, but with the caveat that, to the extent these are successful, they are often self-defeating. “In theory,” the report states, “improved transportation efficiency should result in reduced fuel use. However, when congestion is reduced and the system performs better, additional trips are typically generated … Therefore, if transportation system management measures result in a change in average speeds, average fuel efficiency could increase or decrease.”
Outdated Planes
Airline efficiencies are measured in terms of the available seat miles per gallon that carriers can achieve. Interisland carriers in Hawai`i — Aloha and Hawaiian — have an ASM-per-gallon of 27.3, the Climate Change report states.
This is roughly half of the ASM rate of mainland carriers. Part of the low efficiency of Hawai`i carriers can be explained by the short flights, which, as the report notes, “require high fuel use for takeoff and climb,” but which, unlike long-distance flights, cannot amortize this high fuel use through long cruise and descent segments.
The Climate Change report says Aloha Airlines has improved energy efficiency by employing a “parablic profile” on its flight plans. “Aloha’s aircraft climb to higher altitudes and begin descent earlier at lower airspeed to conserve fuel. An aircraft washing program also minimizes dirt on the aircraft, removing a source of drag.” This program, coupled with increased load factors, has improved Aloha’s fuel efficiency by 8.5 percent.
Also, Hawai`i carriers have been permitted, through special congressional legislation, to use older, noisier, less fuel-efficient aircraft than are allowed to be used anywhere else in the country. The average age of Aloha’s Boeing 737-200 fleet is 16 years, the report notes; the average age of Hawaiian Airlines’ DC-9-50 is 20 years. The Boeing 737-300 can transport twice as many passengers per gallon of fuel as the 737-200 and earlier versions of the airplane, the report says, quoting figures from the Air Transport Association of America. In addition, the later, Stage 3 aircraft are about 50 percent quieter than the Stage 2 plans that are flown in Hawai`i.
However, both Hawaiian and Aloha disagree with the idea that substantial fuel economies could be achieved through use of Stage 3 aircraft. “Aloha Airlines suggested that the fuel savings which would result from conversion to newer Stage 3 aircraft may be on the order of ‘about 8 to 10 percent’,” the report quotes an Aloha spokesman as saying — a figure that the report says probably reflects the short lengths of inter-island flights.
In any case, says state energy analyst Steve Alber, so long as inter-island traffic is transported on jets, gains in efficiency will be limited. If Hawai`i truly wanted to make inter-island travel more efficient, carriers should use turboprop airliners, Alber told Environment Hawai`i, such as those operated by the now-defunct Mahalo Airlines.
Options for reducing carbon emissions generated by airplane traffic are not great, at least as far as the Climate Change report outlines them. Recommendations include exhortations to “Support potential technological improvements in aircraft” and to “Be alert to possible alternative aviation fuels substitution opportunities.”
Among the suggestions that could address emissions without requiring major technological changes is one to re-equip inter-island airlines with newer, more efficient aircraft and to encourage the use of efficient aircraft on routes between Hawai`i and the U.S. mainland — perhaps by having landing fees be based on aircraft emissions.
The report opposes any carbon tax on air fuel, “due to negative economic effects.” “Carbon taxes may make sense in those energy sectors where there are currently non-fossil-fueled options or where there are further efficiency measures that would become cost-effective at the resulting higher energy price,” the report states. “However, in the air transportation sector, the use of carbon taxes would likely have major negative consequences on Hawai`i’s economy.”
Economic Overrides
That theme — that economic considerations should drive the state’s programs to deal with global warming — occurs repeatedly throughout the Climate Change report. At one point, four possible “combination scenarios” are considered, each one making different assumptions about Hawai`i’s response to climate change. Combination 1, the so-called “maximum reduction scenario,” assumed a 50-cent-a-gallon increase in gasoline prices, improved vehicle mileage figures and improved aircraft efficiency, and some increase in alternative fuel use (such as ethanol). No carbon tax was included in this scenario (the gasoline price increase would not be pegged to carbon emissions).
Combination 2 included all elements of the first combination, but also a $125-a-ton carbon tax. Combination 3 did not include any carbon tax, but did assume that renewable energy options would be maximized (an assumption in Combination 1 also) but excluded all the elements in Combination 1 that assumed actions outside the control of entities in Hawai`i (for example, increased vehicle efficiency standards and aircraft efficiency improvements).
As shown in the chart on this page, none of these scenarios reduced emissions of carbon dioxide to the level that would be required for compliance with the Kyoto protocols. Combination 2 comes the closest — at 11 percent above Kyoto goals by the year 2020.
Even so, the report rejects Combination 2 as far too draconian in its impact on the state’s gross regional product and personal income. From 2000 to 2020, should fuels be taxed at the rate of $125 a ton for carbon emissions, the drain on the gross regional product is estimated to total $4.7 billion. This, the report states, amounts to 0.56 percent — barely half a percent — of the total GRP over the two decades considered. In addition, it would reduce employment by 76,249 job years over the 21-year period of the projection — a reduction of 0.00054 percent.
The economic losses associated with a more modest carbon tax of $50 per ton were even more negligible: a reduction of $827 million over two decades in the GRP and loss of potential employment equal to 13,846 job years (a reduction of 0.00009 percent).
Such losses, one could argue, are not noticeable and could easily be eclipsed by unforseen macro-economic events: a downturn in the stock market, political developments (such as the devastating impact the Gulf War had on Hawai`i’s economy early in the 1990s), or changes in travel preferences of tourists.
Nonetheless, the report states, the losses associated with the carbon tax scenarios mean “that a carbon tax … should not be considered for Hawai`i due to negative economic effects.”
What the report does not disclose, or even mention, are the long-term negative consequences — including economic impacts — that could occur if carbon emissions are not curtailed.
It may not be possible to provide meaningful estimates of the revenue loss that would certainly occur should resort areas lose their beaches and waterfront hotels require protection from the seas in the form of high seawalls. Whatever estimate one might provide, it would certainly be large.
Similarly with the cost of compensating for reduced water supplies or degraded water quality. Desalination is hugely expensive, even where it has come to be practiced with a modicum of success. (The joint experiment of Honolulu, the state, and Campbell Estate with a desal plant at Campbell Industrial Park cannot be said to have succeeded at much of anything except spending great amounts of money.)
Pumped underground water that is not now subject to treatment would almost certainly have to be should nitrate levels increase (a likely event should diversified agriculture activities change the pH of Central O`ahu soil). Also, lowered aquifer heads — the outcome of droughts — could result in more brackish water being drawn. Here, again, the cost is difficult to quantify, since the scope of the problem could be relatively minor. In any scenario, however, the cost of water treatment must be considered as a formidable offset to the predicted economic benefits of not dealing with global warming.
— Patricia Tummons
Volume 10, Number 1 July 1999
Leave a Reply