{"id":16600,"date":"2025-07-01T18:27:30","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T04:27:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.environment-hawaii.org\/?p=16600"},"modified":"2025-07-01T18:34:04","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T04:34:04","slug":"decline-in-palila-population-measured-at-90-percent-over-last-quarter-century","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/?p=16600","title":{"rendered":"Decline in Palila Population Measured At 90 Percent Over Last Quarter Century"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In a period of just over two decades, the population of palila, the endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper that feeds on the seed pods of m\u0101mane, has declined 89 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is the sad conclusion of a recent published report by a team of researchers who studied past palila surveys and who also have conducted surveys over the last three years (2022-2024). The estimated population in 1998 was between 4,895 and 7,253 birds, with the most likely number being around 5,952. By 2021, the most likely number had fallen to 679, with the low and high ranges being 444 and 956, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As of the most recent (2024) survey, the population most likely numbered just 666 individuals, with a lower range of 412 and maximum of no more than 970.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div data-wp-interactive=\"core\/file\" class=\"wp-block-file\"><object data-wp-bind--hidden=\"!state.hasPdfPreview\" hidden class=\"wp-block-file__embed\" data=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/palila-chart.pdf\" type=\"application\/pdf\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px\" aria-label=\"Embed of palila chart.\"><\/object><a id=\"wp-block-file--media-9ef82f77-c08a-41b8-9499-f5e068f87805\" href=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/palila-chart.pdf\">palila chart<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/palila-chart.pdf\" class=\"wp-block-file__button wp-element-button\" download aria-describedby=\"wp-block-file--media-9ef82f77-c08a-41b8-9499-f5e068f87805\">Download<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">CREDIT:\u00a0HUNT\u00a0<em>ET AL.,<\/em>\u00a0\u201c2022-2024 STATUS AND TRENDS OF THE PALILA\u00a0<em>(LOXIOIDES BAILLEUI),\u201d<\/em>\u00a0HAWAI\u2018I COOPERATIVE STUDIES UNIT, UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI\u2018I AT HILO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paper, \u201c2022-2024 Status and trends of the palila (<em>Loxioides bailleuiI<\/em>),\u201d was authored by Noah Hunt at the University of Hawai\u02bbi at Hilo (lead author), with Chauncey Asing, Lindsey Nietmann, Paul Banko, and Richard Camp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Palila were once found on the islands of Hawai\u02bbi, O\u02bbahu, and Kaua\u02bbi, at the very least. As the report notes, they \u201cevolved to feed almost exclusively upon the seed pods of endemic m\u0101mane, which contain compounds toxic to most other species.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the late 18<sup>th<\/sup> century, following the introduction of cattle, sheep, and goats, palila were found only on the island of Hawai\u02bbi, with populations on Mauna Loa and Hualalai as well as Mauna Kea. Eventually, the only population remaining was that on Mauna Kea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cA nearly successful attempt to eradicate feral livestock from Mauna Kea in the 1930s and 1940s evolved into a sustained game management plan by the 1950s,\u201d the paper notes, citing a 1984 report by Jim and Sonia Juvik. At that time, palila had been reduced to just about 5 percent of their historical range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cFeral sheep were allowed to proliferate and were even augmented by mouflon in the 1960s, which reversed any recent forest recovery. This precipitated a series of lawsuits which eventually obligated the state of Hawai\u02bbi to remove livestock from palila critical habitat,\u201d the paper goes on to say.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While this allowed some recovery of m\u0101mane, the researchers write, \u201cpalila numbers fluctuated moderately between 4,000 and 6,800. \u2026 After 2005, palila population estimates declined steadily through 2010. During 2014-2024, estimates fluctuated moderately \u2026 with a local peak in 2019. The observed mean decline during 1998-2024 has been 203 birds per year.\u201d This level of annual loss resulted in a decline of more than 90 percent in the population over the 26-year monitoring period, the report says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The authors discuss what could have led to \u201cabnormally low estimates, as in 2000, 2006, 2010, and 2015\u201d \u2013 declines that they say, \u201cappear biologically unlikely.\u201d These \u201ccan sometimes be an artifact of differences between detection probability related to environmental conditions or surveying effort,\u201d they wrote. But weather conditions did not vary that much, so that was not seen as a factor. Nor was there any difference in survey effort. These earlier low estimates, they write, could be attributed to sampling error.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHowever, unlike the 2000 estimate, the 2021 and 2022 estimates were followed by similarly low estimates in 2023 and 2024, \u2026 and therefore we think this represents a true population decline.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In discussing his paper at last month\u2019s Hawai\u02bbi Ecosystem Meeting at the University of Hawai\u02bbi at Hilo, Hunt cited as contributing factors to the palila\u2019s decline changes in climate and fire regime, introduced vegetation, loss of habitat, reduced seed production, and feral cats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He added that the population now is near the minimum viable population size of 500. That\u2019s the smallest number of a population that is thought to have a probability of ensuring its long-term survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Department of Land and Natural Resources was asked what steps were being taken, if any, to address the decline. Bret Mossman, natural resource management specialist with the DLNR\u2019s Natural Area Reserve System, responded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent population trend, he said, follows patterns seen with a lot of native birds. \u201cAs things have changed in the landscape, things are going to decline. There\u2019s been 250 years of basically unmanaged grazing. So the habitat has been really damaged. It\u2019s going to take a long time to recover,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn the 1990s, we had a really bad drought, which caused the population to fall under 2,000 individuals. At that time, the palila probably became susceptible to other threats, such as feral cats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAnd every year we are getting new threats \u2014 from the naio thrips to Russian thistle, which is now invading the Saddle region, increasing fire risk. There\u2019s just new threats coming in on top of the threats they\u2019ve been experiencing over the last few hundred years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re learning more, and so we\u2019re able to take more action, but it\u2019s really a devastating impact. But we have the tools and the assets to be able to do something about it. It\u2019s rough. It\u2019s hard to see. But if we keep protecting the habitat, if we keep addressing predators, if we keep trying new things, eventually we\u2019re going to figure out what is the key recipe for making sure we keep palila around and hopefully build them towards recovery,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mossman acknowledged the very low numbers seen in the early 2020s. But, he said, \u201cwe got a few more raw detections in 2025 than in 2024, so hopefully we\u2019ll see an increase from there.\u201d He attributed this to the \u201chigh-intensity management that the Mauna Kea Forest Restoration Project has been engaging in, particularly the expansion of predator control and the wildlife program in East Hawai\u02bbi.\u201d &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOnly time will tell,\u201d he added. \u201cWe\u2019re trying to implement a bunch of new strategies. We\u2019re hoping in the next few years to do what we\u2019re calling rear-and-release.&nbsp; We\u2019re going to try to collect eggs in the wild, bring those into captivity, raise them up to fledgling age, so just for a few months, then release them back out with the wild flock, so they can learn their wild behaviors before they get stuck in captivity for too long.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mossman identified feral cats as the major predator on palila. \u201cFrom the coast to the summit, feral cats are just about everywhere. They typically prey on nestlings, but they may prey on adults more often than we realize. When adult birds are sleeping, they\u2019re completely susceptible to a predator coming to get them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cCats are definitely being addressed. There\u2019s a much larger effort across the mountain to control feral cats, rats, and mongoose. The teams with the Mauna Kea Forest Restoration Project are really working hard to catch as many cats as they can. They\u2019re removing dozens of cats a year from the palila core habitat.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Federal Court Involvement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In late May, the state announced a scheduled closure of palila habitat areas on Mauna Kea. This was to allow aerial and ground-based hunting of sheep, goats, and mouflon. The operation was scheduled for July 1 and 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAerial shooting is required to comply with the federal court order mandating the removal of sheep and goats from critical habitat for the palila,\u201d the announcement said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That federal court order requiring the state to remove sheep and goats from palila habitat was issued 46 years ago, on June 6, 1979, by Judge Samuel P. King of the U.S. District Court for the District of Hawai\u02bbi.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since that ruling, the state has conducted periodic aerial shoots, with limited effect. In a 2014 article, Paul Banko and others reported that despite the aerial shoots, \u201cour analysis indicates that ungulates have increased over time. \u2026 Although culling ungulate populations has allowed some habitat improvement, their complete removal is necessary for palila to recover, especially given the potential for continued drought.\u201d (See \u201cEvaluating the long-term management of introduced ungulates to protect the palila\u2026,\u201d in <em>Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Reseaerch,<\/em> Volume 46, issue 4.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite scientific consensus on the harmful effects of the ungulates, the Department of Land and Natural Resources\u2019 webpage on management of natural resources on Mauna Kea continues to state, \u201cIt is likely that the remaining palila on Mauna Kea are there in part due to sheep hunters. Hunting activity is heaviest in the area palila still occupy because this area also provides the best vehicular access to Mauna Kea due to a good network of 4wd roads. While browsing damage still occurs here, it is reduced by hunting pressure that temporarily pushes sheep away from the area.\u201d (See: <a href=\"https:\/\/dlnr.hawaii.gov\/restoremaunakea\/management\/sheep-eradication\/\">https:\/\/dlnr.hawaii.gov\/restoremaunakea\/management\/sheep-eradication\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Environment Hawai\u02bbi <\/em>asked the DLNR for numbers of animals taken during the aerial hunts. No reply was received by press time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, documents filed by the state with the federal court claim that from 1987 to June 30, 2024, a total of 25,929 animals were removed. Aerial staff shooting, which did not begin until 1998, took out 10,745 animals. In the entire first decade of Judge King\u2019s absolute order to the state to remove ungulates from critical habitat, the state conducted no aerial hunts or staff shooting and informed the court that hunters alone took 4,083 animals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since 1998, staff hunts account for 10,745 animals taken, while hunters took 11,101. In the six-month period from January 1 through June 30, 2024, the DLNR informed the federal court, \u201ca total of 1,757 hunter trips resulted in the harvest of 282 sheep from the Mauna Kea Forest Reserve and the Ka\u02bbohe Game Management Area \u2026 a success per unit effort of 16 percent.\u201d Staff hunting took out 124 animals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for predator control efforts, that same report to the court stated that there were \u201c87 total captures, including 39 feral cats and 48 mongooses.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That report, for the first six months of 2024, was filed with the federal court on April 25 of this year, nearly 10 months after the reporting period ended. Since then, the state has not made public any further information on compliance with the court order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<strong> Patricia Tummons<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>For Further Reading<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Environment Hawai\u02bbi <\/em>has reported on the status of palila in past issues, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/?p=3421\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"3421\">Palila Recovery Lags Behind Habitat Restoration Efforts<\/a>,\u201d November 1998;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/?p=3348\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"3348\">Judge Shoots Down Hunters, State, on Efforts to Keep Sheep on Mauna Kea<\/a>,\u201d November 1999;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/?p=3279\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"3279\">Hunters Block Saddle Road Work, Professing Concern for Palila<\/a>,\u201d October 2000;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/?p=1185\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"1185\">State, Environmentalists Argue Over Fencing as Palila Population Declines<\/a>,\u201d July 2009;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/?p=362\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"362\">New &amp; Noteworthy: Petrels and Palila<\/a>,\u201d May 2013;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/?p=6114\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"6114\">New &amp; Noteworthy: Aerial Hunting Lawsuit\u2026 Meanwhile, Palila Decline<\/a>,\u201d January 2015.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a period of just over two decades, the population of palila, the endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper that feeds on the seed pods of m&#257;mane, has declined 89 percent. That is the sad conclusion of a recent published report by a &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/?p=16600\">Continued<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16601,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,26,25,539],"tags":[7],"class_list":["post-16600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change","category-endangered-species","category-invasives","category-july-2025","tag-patricia-tummons"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16600\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/environment-hawaii.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}