In his plenary address to the Hawai`i Conservation Alliance\u2019s annual conservation conference in July, Stephen Miller asked the questions that usually arise when people talk about global warming:<\/p>\n
\t\u201cHow profound is it? \u2026 Will it be really hot, or kinda hot? \u2026 What are the potential ecological consequences we may need to deal with?\u2019<\/p>\n
\tNo longer do the questions contain an \u201cif.\u201d Miller, a biologist with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, noted that even if greenhouse gas emissions over the next 100 years are brought to low, stable levels, the planet will still see significant changes given the amount of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. While concentrations of carbon dioxide in the air and surface seawater might top out in 100 to 300 years, and temperatures will eventually stabilize, \u201csea level will continue to rise for hundreds to thousands of years,\u201d as a result of the thermal expansion of oceans and actual melting of sea ice.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cSo,\u201d he said, \u201cwe really need to begin to deal with these things right now, and in a significant way.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tFor Hawai`i, that means looking at what Miller called the \u201cbasic life zones\u201d or \u201cbioclimate envelopes\u201d \u2013 sets of physical factors within which basic biological and ecological interactions occur. \u201cAs climate changes in the Hawaiian islands, these life zone conditions are going to change as well. The places where today you find wet, mesic, and dry conditions are going to be different in the future. Current communities of species may disassemble and novel communities may appear. Species and populations may go extinct, and ranges may shrink. And invasive species may begin to come into play and occupy many of these new regimes.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cLandscape areas that once used to be major Hawaiian habitats are no longer going to occur in the Hawaiian islands. The life zone conditions that created those will simply no longer be present here as climate changes unfold over a long series of time.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tIn their place a new regime will arise, he said: \u201cNew life zone conditions will arise that have never before occurred in these islands.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tNatural resource managers will need to develop new approaches to the changing conditions. Right now, the system of adaptive management, Miller said \u2013 \u201clearn \u2013 plan \u2013 do \u2013 learn \u2013 plan \u2013 do \u2026\u201d \u2013 has as its goal the conservation of landscapes capable of sustaining species, habitats and ecosystems at desired levels. It is based, he said, on the notion that climate conditions are relatively stable.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cAs climate change hits the scene,\u201d Miller continued, \u201cyour management plan will probably become not so useful anymore. You\u2019ll need to evaluate climate changes, start management cycles all over again \u2013 until climate change moves your plan toward obsolescence. So the adaptive management cycle which went around and around now becomes a spiral, moving through time.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tBut how does one go about developing a strategy to address natural resource management challenges in the face of substantial change?<\/p>\n
\tThe first element should be education, Miller said \u2013 at all levels, from individuals to presidents and world leaders. \u201cWe need them to understand what global warming really means, and to get these urgent actions that need to be done started right away. We\u2019ve got a decade, maybe two, to decide where that level of greenhouse gases is going to be set, [the level] that will set the stage for the next thousand years of human climate. We need to act quickly on these issues.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tThe second element, he said, is climate modeling. \u201cOne of the great problems right now is, we need regional climate modeling that will tell us what\u2019s going on in the Hawaiian islands. We need hydrology models \u2026 localized models that tell us about specific areas and events, and agreed-upon standards that tell us how to interpret these models.\u201d Along with that, Miller said, is a need for ecosystem modeling to inform managers and conservationists how ecosystems will shift over time. \u201cThat needs to start now,\u201d he said. \u201cMajor policy decisions and management decisions need to be informed by this kind of modeling.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tAt present, he said, \u201cwe\u2019re in reactive adaptation. You manage critical systems \u2026 and habitat for resident species for as long as reasonably possible. It\u2019s business as usual. But when extreme changes threaten to extirpate resident species, reactive adaptation can be used to provide source populations for translocation \u2013 get them moving into new areas where habitats and life zone conditions are adequate for longer survival. What it doesn\u2019t mean is trying to maintain current populations on current landscapes. We have to shift activities as climate change unfolds.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tWhat is needed, Miller said, is \u201canticipatory adaptation.\u201d<\/p>\n
\t\u201cStarting now, and increasingly rapidly in the future, we need to identify and enhance areas that may be suitable future habitat. We need to expand our knowledge and expertise in transition ecology. \u2026 Right now, we\u2019re not too good at doing this. There needs to be a great deal of work on how to carry out this stuff. And it needs to be developed fairly soon.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tAlready, Miller said, Hawai`i is experiencing rising temperatures. \u201cThe global trend is .18 degrees centigrade per decade. In the Hawaiian islands, Tom Giambelluca has looked at the data, and found we\u2019re pretty much on track.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cBut when you compare low versus high elevations, the high elevation is where major temperature changes are taking place — .27 degrees centigrade per decade. This is where the best habitat is,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\tMore worrying is the fact that nighttime temperatures at high elevations are rising at a faster pace \u2013 \u201c.441 degrees centigrade per decade at upper elevation forests,\u201d Miller said. \u201cThis will have a profound effect on plant and bird species. Most natural vegetation and agriculture crops in non-frost areas are negatively affected by higher nighttime temperatures, due to increased [plant] respiration. Increased temperature and stress on natives could favor invasives. Also, warm night temperatures will undoubtedly affect the distribution of malaria in Hawaiian forests and its impact on birds.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tThe Hawai`i Conservation Alliance has developed a \u201crough outline\u201d for developing a strategy to deal with climate change, Miller noted, and had placed him at the helm. The subject will be the focus of next year\u2019s HCA conference. \u201cIf you have comments, input,\u201d Miller said, \u201cfeel free to send us an email: [email]hcastaff@hawaii.edu[\/email], with the subject heading \u2018climate change comments.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
Synergy<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Among those in the forefront of Hawai`i climate change study is Jonathan Price, a professor of geography and environmental studies at the University of Hawai`i. Amid the gloom and doom of dire forecasts, Price still managed to proclaim, \u201cWe are NOT doomed.\u201d<\/p>\n
\t\u201cWe have a number of tools necessary right now to cope with climate change,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\tPrice is part of a team of scientists trying to develop regional climate change models that will be able, among other things, to project future habitat for individual species of Hawaiian plants and animals.<\/p>\n
\tAlready the effects of climate change are beginning to be observed in Hawai`i, he said. \u201cThere\u2019s been an increase over the last 100 years at high elevations, sharpening over the last 30 years,\u201d with similar trends at low-elevation stations, he said.<\/p>\n
\tPrice described an approach he and other team members are using to look at how climate change might affect local ecosystems. \u201cHistorically, Hawai`i ecosystems have been greatly altered,\u201d he said. \u201cA major consequence of climate change is the exacerbation of stressors.\u201d And when the impacts of global warming are seen essentially as the continuation or exacerbation of stressors that are already present, he said, it is possible to see that \u201cmanagement techniques employed today will be vital to coping with climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tAs an example, Price cited the anticipated rise in elevation of the areas where mosquitoes will be present \u2013 and, with them, the avian diseases they transmit. By removing ungulates \u201cat the landscape scale,\u201d Price said, mosquito habitat can be reduced. \u201cAnd we can reduce other stressors, such as nest predators\u201d \u2013 rats \u2013 as another means of helping to protect diminishing forest bird habitat. \u201cFencing, removal of ungulates and predators, could help keep their habitat useful for the next hundred years,\u201d Price said.<\/p>\n
\tPlants also will be affected by rising temperatures. \u201cWe don\u2019t know what will occur in warmer, lower levels,\u201d he said. \u201cDifferent species respond to climate change at different rates,\u201d as illustrated by the migration of different species of trees after the last ice age in North America.<\/p>\n
\tHow that will play out in Hawai`i is still the subject of speculation. But, in light of aggressive invasive species, Hawai`i plants may be at a disadvantage. Price noted that the introduced strawberry guava (waiawi, or Psidium cattleianum<\/i>) is comparable in many ways to the native kopiko (Psychotria<\/i> spp.), a tree much valued by Hawaiians for its hard wood. Both are mid-canopy trees and occupy similar ranges, from sea level to 5,000 feet elevation, in mesic to wet areas. (The kopiko, although native, \u201cdoesn\u2019t have a website devoted to protecting it,\u201d Price wryly observed, as he displayed a slide showing the webpage of savetheguava.com, sponsored by the Good Shepherd Foundation and Sydney Ross Singer, who opposes release of a biocontrol agent for waiawi.)<\/p>\n
\t\u201cThe traits of waiawi probably mean it will establish in upland areas earlier than kopiko,\u201d Price said. But, he added, with \u201cearly detection and removal of incipient populations, pre-emptive control of future source populations, and reduction of alien sources of dispersal,\u201d the natives would have a better chance of surviving the coming changes.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cCertainly, in the next 100 years, elements of Hawai`i ecosystems will be lost, I hate to say, but there will be overlap between what we have in the future and what we have today,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\tAnd size will matter: Price noted that different scales are needed for different organisms. \u201cBirds require a larger scale to have viable populations,\u201d he said. \u201cBy protecting, managing larger areas, we\u2019re not putting all our eggs in one basket that\u2019s subject to natural or unnatural processes. There\u2019s a safeguard in having larger and larger conservation areas.\u201d<\/p>\n
— Patricia Tummons<\/p>\n
Volume 19, Number 3 September 2008<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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