Under a draft work plan for the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Task Force, the first order of business once funds are released is to select a contractor to update the state\u2019s 1990 greenhouse gas emissions inventory and assist with other task force activities.<\/p>\n
About $400,000 \u2013 or the lion\u2019s share of the $500,000 budget the task force has been given for its first year of work \u2013 is anticipated to be used for consultant activities. If all goes according to schedule, the contractor will be selected and should begin work by March, with the final inventory due to the Legislature by December 31, 2008.<\/p>\n
\tAt the task force\u2019s November 30 meeting, a team of economists and engineers from the University of Hawai`i presented some of their work on local energy issues. Some of that work is being done with the expectation \u2013 or at least the hope \u2013 that a large share of the work that will be farmed out to consultants will fall to them.<\/p>\n
\tMike Hamnett, of the UH Social Science Research Institute, said that once the Legislature passed Act 234 (which requires the state to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020), he pulled together a team of UH experts \u201cto figure out options and assess their impact.\u201d<\/p>\n
In addition to the university\u2019s Hawai`i Natural Energy Institute, which Hamnett said was already doing work on energy consumption and had the capacity to do greenhouse gas emission modeling, the university has assembled a core group of researchers from its Economic Research Organization (UHERO), which received $200,000 from Hawai`i Electric Industries (parent company to three of the state\u2019s four major electric utilities) to begin the work.<\/p>\n
According to Hamnett, the group has begun an \u201canalytical and modeling support project\u201d for the work of the task force. At the November meeting, Denise Konan presented some of the group\u2019s preliminary findings, building on the last comprehensive business inventory done by DBEDT, in 1997, and projecting forward from that, based on growth models.<\/p>\n
Using economic models developed by UHERO, Konan said, by the year 2030, the group forecasts that \u201cemissions will approach 45 million tons\u201d of carbon dioxide or its equivalent, absent any significant changes in consumption patterns. Under the low-growth scenario, emissions would be roughly 38 million tons \u2013 or 150 percent of present levels, using state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism calculations.<\/p>\n
\tKonan presented several \u201cnext steps\u201d for her group\u2019s work: modeling carbon policies (including regulation, cap-and-trade systems, and carbon taxes); developing models of how greenhouse gas policies interact with the tax structure and considering the impacts of this on public finance, income distribution, social welfare, and the like; and factoring in \u201cpetroleum price shocks, alternative tourism and military growth scenarios, population growth, and mitigation efforts.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tSome on the task force seemed to question the assumptions behind Konan\u2019s presentation. Larry Lau, deputy director of the Department of Health and task force co-chair, asked, \u201cIs anything in your analysis going to be looking at the costs of non-action?\u201d Referring to maps developed by a UH geologist showing the impact of rising sea levels on Hawai`i, especially in the tourist center of Waikiki. Lau continued: \u201cIf we look at Chip Fletcher\u2019s maps, we can kiss tourism goodbye\u2026 How much time do we have? The rate of change will affect economic impact, and it may not be a linear path. If we go over some tipping point with Antarctica or Greenland, our big economic model will be scuba gear.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tKonan noted that her group\u2019s model \u201cisn\u2019t set up to look at those issues now. It\u2019s a next step, an important policy question.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tMaurice Kaya, head of DBEDT\u2019s strategic industries division, asked about the role rising oil prices played in developing the forecasts. \u201cAre you looking at demand for oil? Price and policies affect demand. Have you factored those effects into your work?\u201d<\/p>\n
\t\u201cNo,\u201d answered Konan, saying that an analysis incorporating such issues would be \u201cmore complicated than this modeling\u2026 It gets expensive. The funding from the task force won\u2019t be sufficient to do everything.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tHamnett then told the task force members, \u201cYou\u2019re at least a year too short in what you\u2019ve been given to do by the Legislature. And you\u2019re probably short by about half of the amount of money you need to do what you\u2019ve been asked to do. We\u2019re prepared to raise additional private money to supplement this, but we do have to work out what it would take for us to tackle some of the questions the task force members have asked. We could easily spend $1.2 or $1.3 million, not counting the greenhouse gas inventory.\u201d (Later, Hamnett told Environment Hawai`i<\/i> that the UH group is \u201cnot interested in working on the inventories. They are interested in doing emissions and economic modeling and policy analysis.\u201d)<\/p>\n
\tTed Liu, director of DBEDT and task force co-chair, responded by noting that even though resources were tight, \u201cwe need to forge ahead, show people what we can do [and] be creative in terms of funding, personnel resources.\u201d<\/p>\n
\t\u201cI agree with you,\u201d he told Hamnett, \u201cthat neither DBEDT nor DOH has the resources or position counts, but we don\u2019t want to wait\u201d until they\u2019re available.<\/p>\n
\tAccording to a handout distributed at the task force meeting, the university team \u201cwill compile existing economic and environmental data and provide descriptive analysis data needed to analyze policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions…[and] will adapt and use long-run comprehensive models developed by UHERO [to] analyze the economic and environmental impacts of alternative growth scenarios to provide estimates of economic impacts of alternative policy strategies.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tKaya insisted that there has been no commitment on the state\u2019s part to go with any contractor. \u201cWe have to understand our options, what\u2019s manageable with the money that we have. We have to run that type of evaluation first before we make any decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tThe main purpose of the UH presentation,\u201d he continued, \u201cwas to give the task force members an idea of what the university people have been doing. No commitments have been made.\u201d<\/p>\n
— Patricia Tummons<\/p>\n
Volume 18, Number 7 January 2008<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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