Does Maui need a new power plant? The answer depends on Mauians.
Yes, absolutely, if the island’s residents do nothing to bring about a radical change in their electricity consumption.
Maybe. Even if residents and businesses effect dramatic changes in their patterns of energy consumption, a new power plant may still be required, although not as large as what Maui Electric has proposed.
No, if the county and residents take this opportunity to make Maui a model of efficiency, conservation, and good planning.
Rising Demand
Is it likely Maui can do this? If you ask MECO, there’s not a chance. Independent forecasts as well as those of MECO anticipate population growth on Maui of about 2 percent a year well into the second decade of the 21st century. With anticipated increases in efficiencies and implementation of MECO’s demand-side management program, the average annual growth rate in peak electrical demand is 1.4 percent — well below the population growth rate (which is good), but still high enough above any “no-growth” scenario to require the eventual addition of generating capacity.
On the other hand, an analyst for the Rocky Mountain Institute notes that about 12 percent of the electricity used on Maui goes to residential hot-water heaters. Installing solar-water heaters on all the islands houses could cut future demand significantly — though at MECO’s anticipated rate of installing such systems (500 a year), it will take more than a century to outfit all the island’s houses with solar hot-water heaters.
However, notes Richard Heede, if hot-water heaters were merely turned off during the utility’s peak demand hours (5-9 p.m.), peak demand, on which utility forecasts for capacity are based, could be brought down. Thus, even without actually reducing total electricity consumed, managing peak loads can effectively reduce the capacity MECO would need. MECO, Heede notes, has not paid nearly enough attention to managing loads during peak hours.
Installation of decentralized power sources — a PV system on every roof, for example — could also curb or eliminate MECO’s need to grow. The high up-front cost of such systems has in the past been a deterrent, but, if electricity rates continue to rise — and MECO has just applied for another rate increase — it won’t be long before electricity generated by such decentralized systems will be as cheap as that from the MECO meter.
Finally, it is imperative that future buildings and houses be designed to hold energy use to a minimum. Maui County could encourage this by passing the model energy building code developed by the state energy office (and enacted into law by every other county).
Alternatives
One of the major objections to MECO’s proposed new Waena plant is its reliance on diesel fuel, to the exclusion of other energy sources, such as solar power, ethanol, bagasse, and photovoltaic systems. In some cases, the cost to add on a megawatt of generating capacity of alternate fuel is not that much more expensive than comparable costs for oil-fired capacity.
But there’s a catch. Some of the more benign means of generating electricity (wind and solar especially) are not capable of doing so 100 percent of the time. For this reason, they cannot be counted as baseload capacity without some means of energy storage, such as battery banks.
On the other hand, if baseload capacity could be lowered through management measures (for example, by imposing time constraints on major electrical consumers for non-time-essential uses), alternative energy sources could become a more important component in the utility’s overall plan to meet future demand.
Taking Charge
As helpful as it is to turn off lights when they’re not in use and to avoid lifestyle choices that consume vast quantities of electricity (the swimming pools and spas, the air conditioners, the half-loaded dishwashers, and the like), the sad fact is that reductions in residential electrical consumption alone cannot do much to curb the state’s consumption of fossil fuels. More meaningful savings can be found in the commercial and institutional sectors, but here, again, it is important to bear in mind that just 28 percent of the energy used in Hawai`i (nearly all of which is fossil fuel-based) goes to produce electricity.
But the real savings to be made are in transportation. Until something is done to reduce consumption in this sector, altering energy use elsewhere will have little effect.
As tempting as it may be to think technology will save us by providing electric cars (still polluting, just not from the tailpipe) or mass transit, nothing approaching a technological solution is on the horizon.
As the chart we reprint shows, the best thing one can do is get out of one’s truck and take a bus (where available), bike, or hike. That these are not practical options for the vast majority of Mauians points to a need for a completely new paradigm for community planning. Urban areas should be concentrated rather than spread out. Public transit should be increased for visitors and residents alike. Greenways and bicycle routes should make commuting safe for those who choose not to drive. Commercial centers should be within walking distance of residential communities. The list goes on and on.
In the end, if we are serious about reducing our dependence on fossil fuel and curbing emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases, we must address all of our energy-wasteful habits in an overall redesign of the community planning paradigms that have led us to the point where we are now. Reducing our demand for electricity is just one element in this effort — and a relatively minor one, at that.
The Judd Trail Debacle
What happened to the Judd Trail should not be allowed to pass without notice. As our article describes in depressing detail, the county of Hawai`i Planning Department let a developer off the hook by not requiring him to comply with terms of his permit. The result: the Judd Trail has been seriously breached. If it is to be restored and made part of what hiking enthusiasts envision as a mauka-makai greenway in South Kona, the state will have to bear the cost, which could be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars in just this one stretch of the trail.
This betrayal of public trust is appropriate to keep in mind as the county petitions the Land Use Commission to place into the Urban district about 1,000 acres of land in South Kona. The county is asking the LUC to waive its usual requirement for a detailed archaeological inventory of the petition lands, promising the LUC instead that this will be done when the county entertains rezoning requests from the various landowners.
Members of the LUC have expressed some wariness over the prospect of turning over to the county the LUC’s responsibility to protect historic sites. The county has insisted it will do nothing to shortcut the historic review process, although it has already balked at giving the Historic Preservation Division more than two weeks to review rezoning applications.
It is difficult to know at this point whether the Judd Trail screw-up was the result of incompetence, inadequate staffing, or improper favoritism toward a developer and his attorney. In any event, the matter does little to inspire faith in the cheap promises made by the Yamashiro administration. Until the county can establish that it has the intention and ability to enforce compliance with permit terms, the LUC should not cede any authority to the county.
Volume 8, Number 10 April 1998